The Need to Knows
- The Time: 4:30 pm PT / 7:30 pm ET
- The Place: UBS Arena, Belmont, NY
- Where to Watch: ROOT Sports NW, MSGSN, ESPN+ for out-of-market viewers
- Where to Listen: KJR 93.3 FM
- Opposing Viewpoint: Belmont Skates
Know Your Enemy
Since the last time these two teams played, on November 16, the New York Islanders have been in a similar spot to the Kraken when it comes to the playoff hunt. The Islanders been fighting to remain relevant in a very crowded Metropolitan Division. They currently sit two teams back from a Wild Card playoff spot with 56 points, with the New Jersey Devils ahead of them. (The Islanders actually sat one spot back before the Kraken lost to the Devils, so the Kraken have already played spoiler to their playoff hopes last night.)
Over the past few seasons, I’ve known the Islanders as a team that wore its opponents down first then pounced on the attack. If games started out as low-scoring affairs, it was solely because the Islanders forced teams into playing their way. In the few games I’ve watched the Islanders in this season, that couldn’t have been farther from the case. The Islanders not only feel lethargic, but the team has been repeatedly blowing leads—especially multi-goal leads—which speaks to poor defensive play when they have been able to get the jump on teams.
In hopes of bringing the team back to the identity they’re known for, the Islanders relieved Lane Lambert of his coaching duties on January 20 and brought in Patrick Roy to replace him. Since Roy’s hiring, the Islanders have gone 3-3-1. The Islanders still have work to do if they’re going to climb back up the standings, but there have been signs that Roy is working to light a fire under this team. The players themselves seem to notice a change in the energy around the team since Roy took over.
While intangibles such as the boost in energy and infusion of new ideas from a new coaching hire shouldn’t be the only thing to base analysis on, it’s hard not to overlook these things when considering the compete factor heading into a matchup.
Game Preview
A major key for the Kraken in this game—and in any game going forward—is to get the puck on net more. Both against the Flyers and the Devils, it’s not just that the Kraken were being outshot. There were stretches of play in both games where the Kraken weren’t getting pucks to the net period. In the second period against the Devils, it took until there were 5 minutes left for the Kraken to get their first shot on goal that frame. Against the Flyers, the third period held a lopsided 14-2 shots on goal. In both cases, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the Kraken hadn’t generated any offensive opportunity, but shots on goal measure how many times a puck got to the goaltender.
When looking at the game in Philadelphia, the Kraken had 19 total shots on goal, while the Flyers blocked 23 total shots. Now, the Flyers are also a strong defensive team, and blocking shots is part of their identity (so much so that Tyson Foerster suffered a lower-body injury on Saturday from crashing into Jamie Oleksiak to block a shot). So it’s not to say that the Kraken weren’t trying to get their shots through. Yet, their Corsi For Percentage (CF%) that night was 40.32%. Corsi is the sum of not just the shots on goal, but missed and blocked shots as well. When looking at percentages, it takes the totals from both sides of the ice and puts them into a ratio. Having a CF% at under 50% like this proves that even when they were making offensive plays, it just wasn’t enough to outperform what the Flyers were doing that night in terms of shot volume.
On the flipside, the game against the Devils posed a different situation. In total, the Kraken were outshot 37 to 28. Yet, the Kraken’s CF% ended at 54.76% at 5-on-5 (though in all situations, it falls to 49.59%). So it wasn’t that the Kraken weren’t attempting to put offensive pressure on the Devils. The difference falls in the quality of offense. Not all shots are created equal, and while the Kraken were able to shoot in total more while at 5-on-5, those shots weren’t quality enough to be difference makers in that game. (All stats from Natural Hat Trick.)
Now, this is just a two-game sample, but this has been the theme of the East Coast road trip so far. Since they’re coming off the first game of a back-to-back while on the road, the Kraken likely won’t have a morning skate tomorrow. Any adjustments in their strategy will have to be executed in-game if they want a chance to break these habits—and they need to break these habits fast if they don’t want their playoff hopes to fade away.
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