So! I hope you’ve enjoyed your time off from Kraken hockey, because it’s now coming for you at full force from here until April 18th.
But in the middle of all that, there’s the Trade Deadline.
The Deadline is often the single most important day on the NHL Calendar for a good many teams; it’s when a number of teams take their final opportunity to either shore up their roster and get ready for the playoffs by buying, or selling what positives they have in order to get draft picks, potential unknowns that could blossom into real interesting players for next year. Several teams are already deep in their scouting journeys for potential deadline adds and several more are insinuating that they’re trying to make major moves to try and make the good parts of a disappointing season slightly better, or focus in on what makes them good in the first place without hangers-on.
The Kraken…could be in either of these camps at the moment. Probably both.
Thanks to a rough start, a slightly better winning streak that got them back on target, a revelation at goaltender, and some depth coming up in the clutch; the Kraken are not quite in the playoffs yet, but are a mere 4 points from surpassing Nashville and St. Louis, and 6 points in LA. That is, of course, assuming that Calgary, Arizona, Nashville, St. Louis, and Los Angeles all fail to get points over the next three games. Given that all of them are in similar stations of “Good but deeply, cripplingly flawed”, it’s not out of the ordinary to suggest it’s possible. Whether or not the Kraken can do that? It’s theoretically possible; they’ve gone on a long winning streak before, but it’s never been an easy proposition nor something they can rely on. Particularly considering their achilles heel this year has been finish; the Kraken are about middle of the road in possession stats, but are failing to capitalize on that possession in a way that matters outside of a very specific group of players.
Thus, the problem; it’s entirely possible to look at the sheer number of injuries the team has suffered, the sheer number of cascading issues coming out from the lack of scoring touch, and conclude that this isn’t the year to try and go for it. On the other hand, so many much healthier, farther along teams are currently struggling to maintain their position in the standings; if the Kraken can get it together for another prolonged streak of wins, they could catapult themselves straight into the playoffs and stay there for as long as they want to.
So let’s take stock. Let’s see what the Kraken have to use to make
What the Kraken have to use
Well! As of Friday, February 9th, the Kraken have:
- $3,813,125 in actual cap space as of right now, which would be 9th highest amount in the league as of right now without the use of LTIR.
- A projection of $1,410,062 in cap space at the end of the season.
- The potential to add approximately $6,445,998 at the deadline and remain Cap Compliant.
- Several veteran players on expiring deals that make them Unrestricted Free Agents at the end of the year, a couple of whom are pretty marquis/important names for the team.
- Several more veteran players who will be on expiring deals next year who are UFAs.
- Two extra, open roster spots.
- All of their first round picks for the next five years.
- Two extra picks in the middle and late rounds of this upcoming draft (3rd and 7th round, specifically).
All of this is courtesy of CapFriendly, which I will be taking information from frequently here.
Not a bad war chest to start with, especially considering how some teams are handling their cap recently.
What are the Easiest Moves?
Justin Schultz – The “Easiest” option
Justin Schultz has been Seattle’s whipping boy for a fandom that’s had a lot of whipping boys interchangeably all season. Already the oldest player on an old defense, the issues with net-front play and puck security have been a major concern for fans throughout the season; especially now with Ryker Evans waiting in the wings to seemingly take his place for good. Schultz, as a player, may not be perfect, but as a Right-Handed Defenseman, he still carries tremendous value.
So what’re the positives and negatives on a trade of Schultz?
Why they Should Do It:
Schultz’ recent scoring streak has masked what is otherwise a pretty mediocre effort this year. In fairness? The Kraken are not asking Justin Schultz to play 25 minutes a night; that honor is usually relegated to somebody in the top four, but the reality that often follows Schultz is that he’s been caught one time too many on a backcheck, and when points are as valuable as spanish dubloons found on a Florida shoreline…the Kraken really can’t afford veteran experience that also doesn’t come with “canny ability to apply it”. That’s just not what they’re getting from him these days.
Further, the development of Ryker Evans as a potential fill-in is absolutely tantalizing; helped along by the fact that Evans, to put it bluntly, has potentially made him quite expendable. Not a great place to be in the league as a 33 year old.
Mercifully, what he does have, is stuff that time cannot take away from him: which is the fact that he is a defenseman who shoots Right-handed. That is an extremely rare and very valuable asset that just about every team in the league can and will pay through the nose to get their hands on.
That can be quite valuable for the Kraken, especially if it means they can seamlessly slide Evans into Schultz’s place full-time. Further, of all the trades possible to Seattle, this is the one I am certain they will entertain more than the other two UFAs.
Why they Shouldn’t Do It:
Schultz is a solid hand, to be sure; but he’s also not a very sexy option. Just about every team in the league wants depth, and specifically RHD no matter the level of play they’ve seen this year, but Schultz is on a west coast team that has inconsistent efforts on defense, and Schultz is a part of that problem.
That means that while Schultz is available and deeply interesting as a potential trade target…you’re gonna need to juice the offer a little bit. Now granted, Calgary’s trade with Vancouver seems to have upended what a fair trade in 2024 looks like, so it may not take a tremendous amount of juicing, but I think if you’re going to move on from Schultz, a pick or two is probably coming alongside him. If Ron Francis feels like the loss of picks is too much, especially for such a young franchise trying to get younger on-roster…it’s probably not happening.
Alex Wennberg – The Secretly Frugal option
Alex Wennberg has, like a lot of players this year, had a rough time adjusting to the shooting slump. He’s made changes to his equipment, found success as a playmaker, and has indeed begun to found a touch in getting on the scoreboard; it’s still been a rough go for a player who has otherwise been a pretty solid hand for the squids.
The issue the Kraken face with Wennberg is that A) he needs a new contract at the end of the year, and B) he is coming off of what has been an exhausting offseason, and an extremely rough regular season where it’s not 100% clear he’ll reach the 40+ point mark he hit last year…alongside the uncomfortable fact that center in the Kraken organization is an extremely tenuous position.
So the options are thus; move him, or keep him.
Why they Should Do It:
Y’know that “down year” thing I keep hammering?
It’s also true of his possession stats. Previously, Wennberg was maybe a little boring as a playdriver, but extremely strong on the defensive side of the puck. This year?
…Less so.
It’s also manifested a bit on his ability to create possession off the draw; having one of the worst faceoff-%’s on the team, which is pretty galling given that he’s taken more defensive zone faceoffs than just about every other center at any strength you can conceive of. Even Yanni Gourde hasn’t seen the level of defensive zone faceoffs that Wennberg has, and if you’re struggling to make an impact possession-wise and having these kinds of troubles, regardless of how much the coach trusts you on the penalty kill…it is a tough combo.
As such, maybe finding a different home for Wenny isn’t necessarily the worst thing in the world for the Kraken right now; he’s going to be an even 30 by next season, and will have been an otherwise serviceable depth forward the entire time. While that is a noble endeavor and useful in the NHL, that is something the Kraken have a lot of already. Meanwhile, his ability on the power play, as well as his playmaking potential, could be a major boon for teams with deeper forward rosters than the Kraken’s.
Why they Shouldn’t Do It:
The short version is that the Kraken should only do this if you’re basically guaranteeing Shane Wright or another center coming back the other way the exact amount of ice-time Wennberg is getting coming out of the deadline.
Wennberg has had his goal-scoring struggles; this I can absolutely respect the frustrations with his shooting drop. Seattle however, has a dearth of centers that can adequately take his place. Sure, you could simply promote the Gourde line into being the 2nd line, which I mostly support. The reality is that any major vacancies in the center position in the middle lines, regardless of whether or not you “promote from within”, should go to a player who has earned that right, and in my humble opinion…that belongs to Shane Wright.
That is, after all, what you drafted him so highly for, isn’t it? You can’t just trade a guy and assume John Hayden will slot in and everyone moves up a spot, right?
Wright’s been on a tear in Coachella Valley; having 32 points in 41 games, in a scoring race with Max McCormick for team lead in goals, and has been a major part of their rise back into the AHL’s top teams after a slow start. It would be pointless to make him play the sub-15 minutes a night that the third and fourth line provide, and his game is probably better suited setting up guys like Jared McCann and Andre Burakovsky up for scoring chances rather than mucking about trying to get an offensive zone draw with Kailer Yamamoto. Regardless of whether or not he gets caved, his play has indicated that he is acclimating to the professional game nicely, and now that he’s had an entire year to get comfortable, it feels like his time truly is coming, and that’s not just something that I believe, but the organization feels as well; this story about his rise has been front-and-center on the Kraken’s website since a little before the All-Star Break began, and most of it is nothing but effusive praise of his skillset. They’re clearly high on this kid.
But…are they ready to commit to him?
If the Kraken do not believe, at any point, that Shane Wright is ready for day-in, day-out inclusion on the Kraken’s NHL roster, or that they cannot get a center of equivalent ability to Wennberg in a trade, they should not do this. Center depth is already a concern; there’s no reason to make it worse.
Jordan Eberle – The Big Fish
This is the marquis name of Tradeable Seattle Kraken players.
The player with the most known-value to the wider NHL world. The Nuclear Option.
This is also a trade you cannot make unless you are absolutely certain you are going to clean up while doing so. You should, too; because Eberle is still at his age an absolutely dynamic player. A phenomenal playmaker and major part of Seattle’s offense, Eberle is a free agent at the end of the year and inarguably a player that Ron Francis should be trying to get at least a year or two out of by the time the season ends; having dragged his linemates kicking and screaming into being reasonable top 6 options until Ron Francis gave him a partner in crime in that regard in Tomáš Tatar.
The Kraken will almost certainly need Eberle for the here and now. The decision to move on from him as of this moment in time will be a bad one if the moment isn’t there.
The Return would have to be amazing.
But amazing is still possible.
Why they Should Do It:
It will hurt to move on from Ebs, because he’s an absolute monster of playmaking and play-driving. You absolutely should not do this if you think you can go back to the playoffs.
The big question you will have if you decide then to hang onto him, is three-pronged:
- Is this down-tick in scoring just the result of rotten luck? Or a sign he’s beginning to regress?
- Can he be this impactful for a number of his middle-to-late 30’s, where a good portion of all NHL players begin to fall off in terms of effectiveness as wear and tear begins to take it’s toll?
- If you believe the first two are no object for you: He is a Free Agent this upcoming offseason. Can you convince him to come back now that a number of teams will have a modicum of Cap Space with the upcoming boost in the Cap Ceiling?
These are some pretty painful questions to ask, but they’re valuable. Eberle is 33; tied for the oldest player on the team with Justin Schultz and Tomáš Tatar. While it’s definitely a bit odd for a team so young to be so old; Tatar is a pretty clear rental and Schultz is a depth defender: they’re temporary solutions while much younger names in a blossoming prospect system grow into their fully-fledged form. Eberle meanwhile, has been asked to be a major part of Seattle’s offense from day one and has otherwise performed that duty reasonably. Can he continue to do that while going into his hockey twilight years?
Another interesting wrinkle: He’s a Free Agent at the end of the year. The Kraken have plenty of cap space if he wants to be re-signed here, so that’s no issue. The problem that the Kraken face is that they won’t be the only team trying to court him. Much has been made about the NHL’s insistence that the players have made good on their escrow payments, and the four million dollars boost in the Cap Ceiling being promised. The reason for this can be seen right on CapFriendly’s main page; over half the league has less than $800,000 of space to rub together in order to sign a player in projected cap space and are using LTIR; and half of those teams using LTIR could theoretically ice a penalty kill with the bodies they’ve piled up. The money’s good, and a number of teams get much-needed relief from being in Cap Jail.
But with that money, that means Teams can add. That means teams that are in a better spot than Seattle is right now, even at the end of the year, could bid for his services.
I for one love Ebs, and love him wearing a Kraken jersey. I struggle to think, with a Pacific Division so tight, that Ron Francis would be able to both outbid other suitors or get him in on a contract that makes sense for both parties. Ron will have to figure out a contract for Eeli Tolvanen, Kailer Yamamoto…and Matty Beniers at the same time. They are notably, the only rostered UFAs that the Kraken will have this problem with. Losing him for nothing would be catastrophic.
A rental like this for a good number of teams would be huge; he’s a major possession force and would make a good number of teams better by his inclusion. Seattle could very easily facilitate that.
But taking out all the heartless pragmatism of it all…the simple motivating factor behind doing this is manic greed informed by the market, and the market made this trade all the more palatable by starting out with an absolute haul.
Here is the first trade made during this part of the year: the Kuzmenko trade from Vancouver to Calgary. That entailed:
- A Useful player right now
- A project prospect that could be useful in the future
- A first round pick
- Several lower round picks
- All for one player from a historic divisional rival(!!!)
Imagine what the Kraken could get if they decided to sell on him now; in a market more than willing than ever to dump every last thing they have for the upcoming year in order to compete now. Boston needs help, and they have players worth taking. So do LA and Anaheim. Some of these teams are making the exact calculations that Seattle are right now.
Some of them are in better spots than Seattle.
Imagine.
Why they Shouldn’t Do It:
So remember when I said “Can he do it while entering his hockey twilight?”
The trend over time, while it is lower than it has been throughout his career…seems to be gesturing towards “yes”.
This is why I referred to this as “The Nuclear Option”. While there are plenty of questions you could ask about Eberle for the future, the Kraken need him and are getting good work out of him in the here and now. This is the drag chute on competing, and settling in on a Top 15 pick; the final month and change of the season effectively being free hockey with no stakes. Unless you can get back a player who is of equal or better value, this is a decision that is made exclusively for the future.
Jordan Eberle is, to put it frankly, one of the best forwards the Kraken have right now, and his lack of points comes almost entirely down to bad shooting luck. He should frankly be scoring more by the way he’s playing in some games. Losing that would frankly put them in a very deep, very dark place that would make the rest of the season…difficult to bear, let’s call it.
D’you want the part of the inaugural season where they didn’t have Matty? This is a good way to get back to that level of ineptitude.
Greed isn’t gonna save you in this case; Don’t Do This.
When should Seattle Make Their Decision To Use Their War Chest?
Within the next couple weeks. The games you see coming out of break? The next couple of weeks specifically?
That’s the Evaluation Period.
While all of these games are going to be viciously competitive, they also run the gamut of playing Playoff Teams, Non-Playoff Teams, and Tweeners. It’s the perfect time to really look at what the Kraken are, not just what they have, and see if it’s feasible for them to take enough points to stay in the hunt for the Wild Card.
The issues Seattle face ultimately come down from one simple problem: it is a chore for them to play offense some nights. They can potentially fix this for the now or for the not-too-distant future by becoming active on the trade market if they wanted to! They could rip valuable draft picks out of teams that are extremely invested in not just making the playoffs, but actively competing in them, and we’ve already seen that several of these teams are willing to pay up big time to do it.
But you need to be absolutely, 100% certain that if you sell, you are going in on being a seller. There is no point to half-assing punting on the rest of the season. That’s what the next two weeks are for; getting a realistic idea if selling is even a wise idea.
But, let’s say they wanted to add, where could they look?
Let’s talk about that next time.
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