Welcome to the half-way point of the NHL Season. I’m as shocked as you are it’s gotten here already.
The Kraken are not necessarily in a playoff spot as of this writing, but like last time where we had to throw about 900 words in Caveats to explain that…this time, I feel like it’s less of a problem than you might expect. This time, the Kraken are tied at 45 points with the Preds and the Oilers.
A Streak for the Holidays
Last time we met for one of these, this section was referred to as “What’s gone right”, and it’s actually kind of hard to mention any one thing this time…
…Because since December 20th, just about everything has gone right for Seattle.
Leading up to the Winter Classic, the Kraken began a points streak that slowly began to drag the team out of their doldrums of early season frustration; placing Joey Daccord and Chris Driedger in net after the untimely injury of Philipp Grubauer turned out to be the winning ticket for most of the Kraken’s needs; Daccord has been otherworldly since his impromptu promotion to starting goaltender, and has given Seattle the chance to win just about every game they play…and they’ve taken it just about every time since that fateful game against Los Angeles; capping off by dragging the Vegas Golden Knights behind the woodshed and absolutely pantsing them in front of all sorts of cameras and smiling faces pointed directly at T-Mobile Park, all the while looking excellent in the process.
Underlying numbers-wise, the Kraken have evened out as an average or just-above-average team shooting-wise; which is fine; a good portion of the teams ahead of them in that regard are either eastern conference foes or Central division foes, and given where they started where they had some truly gruesome inability to score or even shoot, their decision to hyperfocus down on their biggest strengths of last year; transition and attacking the net in odd-man rushes is a very welcome change, something they’ve weaponized hard since the point-streak began.
The work in-net has allowed different players to ease the burden of the defense, and allowed for the team to become laser focused on attacking the net with their forwards, and pouncing on second chance opportunities. Just about every player who’s dressed over this streak has gotten a point somewhere during it, and has risen the stock of a number of different players; Eeli Tolvanen of course has always been a delight, but guys like Jaden Schwartz, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Tye Kartye, Kailer Yamamoto, and Alex Wennberg to be major difference makers throughout this particular campaign. It’s also helped immensely by Vince Dunn surging to life at the perfect time, having 9 points in his last ten games.
Individually strong efforts from players that have been called upon to be difference makers such as Ryker Evans (who has been strong in just about every game he’s been called up to play) and Justin Schultz (who has his warts, but is getting results lately, and if that’s what it takes…well hey, results are being gotten.), which has led to the feeling of last season seemingly being restored. And of course, who could forget the latest example of Ron Francis’ betting paying off phenominally in Tomas Tatar? Who has rebounded strong from his early season doldrums now that he plays in Deep Blue; allowing Jordan Eberle and Matty Beniers a much-needed boost in effectiveness, something we’ve needed badly from them.
The cherry on top? Just about every team ahead of them in-division is dealing with catastrophic injury to their goaltenders, and are cratering through their last 10 or so games. A chance at safety in the third spot is possible!
…Which would be nice, if the Edmonton Oilers hadn’t decided to do the exact same thing at the exact same time. Meaning that the race for what was previously the 2nd Wildcard spot is now a mad scramble for 3rd in Division; with a measely 3 points separating Seattle and Edmonton from tying LA.
The price you pay for a slow start, I guess.
Some Assembly still required
Now, with all the good things that the Kraken have been able to do over the course of this run, I think it should still be said that the team could consider improving at certain positions and at certain aspects of their play.
The first one, and arguably the biggest one, is controlling the puck a bit more.
The Kraken rely a lot on a strong defensive structure and a goaltender playing extremely well in order to get the results that they do, and while Joey Daccord has been otherworldly…the question must be asked of what happens if he merely returns to being a .920 SV% goaltender? Or a .915 SV% goaltender? He’s had the first star in an overwhelming amount of these games and thee star of this winning streak. Part of the reason why is that out of the last ten games they’ve been handily outshot in all but nine of them, and that’s hardly unique to the season.
In fairness, it’s part of the way they do business on offense; create opportunities through transition and you only get transition if you spend a lot of time in your own end. But eventually that could come back to haunt them once they start playing more meaningful games against the Floridas, the Winnipegs, and of course…Edmonton’s of the league; teams whose basic mission statement is burying the other team in shots and scoring chances until the dam breaks. Joey Daccord and the defense as a whole can handle that for a little while…but eventually the dam breaks. The way to keep that from happening in such a way that it causes problems is to turn the game of transition into just one big X-factor in an offense that runs the other team ragged. Something they have shown time and time again they can absolutely do and have done in the past.
The other thing that requires further work is special teams; The 5-on-5 play has improved a bit, but the power play and penalty kill are pedestrian at the moment. The Kraken’s ability to score on either the man-advantage or to keep the other team from scoring on a man-disadvantage has been predicated on a bizarre inability to break whatever zone they’re trying to enter or leave, as scores of failed zone entries on the power play can attest, and the most bizarre issue the team has continued to face, which is the empty net…for the other team. That’s a situation a team faces more than a handful of times throughout a season, and yet somehow no team in the league manages to face that particular issue with so much toil and struggle, and a big part of it comes down to those entries and exits.
Were this particular thing figured out, I think we’d spend a lot less time in an abject panic over the final three or four minutes of a game.
Pining for the Post-Season
Look, it’s still a million years games-wise before the playoffs and the Kraken aren’t nearly in a sure-fire spot yet.
The difference on the other hand, is that now it feels a lot more like they’ll “settle” into a playoff spot rather than “claw desperately kicking and screaming and covered in blood, much of whom does not belong to them” into a playoff spot, if that makes sense. The desperation isn’t nearly as bad, and the idea of bottoming out for draft picks seems like a bad dream rather than a serious concern.
Still, as we’ve said already, the Kraken have their work cut out for them. The difference between the Wildcard is now down to goal differential, and the difference between the Wildcard and 3rd place is slim…and it just so happens that Edmonton, Seattle, and Calgary are charging into the new year with guns blazing. Any ground given now will be critical, and thus any improvements made come time for the playoffs is probably going to be crucial if they decide to make them.
If they decide to make them at all. What would they go after if they decided to? After all, their first rounder is a tantalizing thing should they decide to spend it…or it could serve their purposes just as well as mid-round first round pick. Tankathon says their streak has all but doomed their chances of a top 5 pick this year, so it gives them a certain amount of flexibility; do you go get a player now that addresses a burning need? Or get a project for the next couple of years? The market doesn’t look ideal as of right now…but then again, nobody seems to be quite as good at finding money like Ron Francis…
Let’s wait until after the All-Star game to really start thinking of what this team needs to even consider improving, but keep it in mind. Options should be open.
What Comes Next
A lot of home games. Like a lot of home games.
The Kraken are actually on one of their last big road trips of the year until April, and it features the first of a maddening number of back-to-backs away from home in the upcoming months. Mercifully, their immediate future is much kinder to them than you might expect; they have a very charitable schedule coming into and also slightly out of the All-Star Break with a number of non-playoff opponents that are going through some hard times, after which they face a boatload of Eastern Conference teams for much of February and March. However long this current streak goes, they need to take as many points as they can from this otherwise extremely charitable stretch of games before they return home.
Funny thing is? I have utmost confidence they can do that. Funny what getting your depth going and a Tomas Tatar in your lineup can do for a season.
It’s allowed Seattle a chance. Now they just need to take it.
It started on the 20th of December, and it continues tonight against Columbus.
Let’s see what
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