Kraken @ Jets PREVIEW: Elite Defense and Vezina-Worthy Goaltending Greet Seattle in Winnipeg

The Need to Knows

• The Time: 5pm PT
• The Place: Canada Life Center, Winnipeg, Manitoba
• Place to Watch: ROOT Northwest, ESPN+/SportsNet+
• Place to Listen: KJR 93.3-FM
• An Opposing Viewpoint: Arctic Ice Hockey

Know Your Enemy

Sunday evening saw the Winnipeg Jets execute what they do best: timely scoring in comeback fashion. Trailing the Buffalo Sabres entering the third period, four different skaters exploded for four unanswered goals to propel the Central Division’s first place team and the league’s leader in third period goal differential (+29) to their 39th win of the season, their ninth in the last 11 games.

Winnipeg controls a fair 51.57% of the total shot quality this season with an offensive presence fixated on the left wing of the ice without activity in the high danger areas of the zone. Middling shot and scoring rates, namely recording 30.9 shots (17th) and 2.56 goals (14th) per game, demonstrate an adequate, far from overwhelmingly offensive ability even if their goals share (59.81%) is best in the NHL, a feat accomplished with only the 15th-most goals scored this season (125). What gives?

Shutdown defense can carry a team far– that’s the secret to their success. Through 60 games played, Winnipeg has ended the first period tied or leading 75% of the time and ended the second period tied or leading 70% of the time; Winnipeg wins 73% of their games when tied or leading after the first, and 83% of their games when tied or leading after the second. While the Jets prefer protect rather than scrounge for leads, they can shut down opposing teams long enough to dig themselves out of a hole, too.

Defense is the name of Winnipeg’s game. Collectively they’ve allowed the fewest goals in the league (84) thanks to a brick wall of a defensive zone and a god of a goaltender. Winnipeg has yielded enough shot quality for opponents to score only 116.67 goals (7th), and on top of that, has stopped 31.2 goals above expected (1st) largely due to Vezina-favorite Conor Hellebuyck’s reliability on the backend. According to NHL Edge, Hellebuyck has recorded a save percentage of .900% or higher in 68.2% of his games, a stark increase from the league-average of 50.8%.

Game Preview

Seattle’s on the second half of a back-to-back coming into this one, and Winnipeg will run on a day of rest headed into these team’s first meeting this season and first of two games against each other this week– they’ll meet again at Climate Pledge Arena on Friday.

André Burakovsky, a game-time decision for Saturday’s tilt versus the Edmonton Oilers, made his return to the lineup after a lower-body injury Monday versus the Calgary Flames. Whether Seattle will be missing Vince Dunn Tuesday remains to be seen– the defenseman took a puck to the face, exiting the game in the third period after sustaining a nasty hit. Perpetrator Martin Pospisil was administered a five-minute major and a game misconduct, and could receive additional league discipline.

Winnipeg’s Gabriel Vilardi left Thursday’s game with an upper-body injury, did not practice Friday, and missed Saturday’s game.

Data via MoneyPuck, HockeyViz, NHL Edge.