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Will Brandon Tanev or Yanni Gourde be traded?

It brings me no joy to have this tough conversation, but it’s a conversation we must have all the same.

After handing out contracts to Brandon Montour, Chandler Stephenson, and Matty Beniers, the Kraken currently have 21 players on the roster and $4,286 in salary cap space, so Seattle is currently cap compliant.

The problem is that 21 players, while technically enough to field a roster, isn’t enough players in practice. The typical number is 23, giving the team options in case of injury, and there will always be injuries to every team at some point. Maybe they go into the season with just 21, but this will inevitably have to change at some point.

This means somebody has to go to make room for cheaper options to fill out the roster. Who could it be?

The four Kraken players who are on the last year of their contract and their cap hits:

  • C Yanni Gourde ($5,166,667)
  • LW Brandon Tanev ($3,500,000)
  • D Will Borgen ($2,700,000)
  • D Josh Mahura ($775,000)

Mahura, making the minimum salary, doesn’t make sense to trade. Borgen doesn’t make the minimum salary, but he’s a defenseman and the Kraken do not have a lot of depth there and would be very thin on the blueline if they did trade Borgen and I don’t think trading him makes a lot of sense giving the other options (barring someone making an outrageous trade offer, but I don’t see that happening). But they do have some forwards who could step in.

The case for Yanni Gourde

Chandler Stephenson, Matty Beniers, and Shane Wright all play center and the Kraken have invested significant money and/or draft capital in them and are clearly part of the long-term plans for the franchise. This means Yanni Gourde would likely take a 4th line center role, and he’s just too good for that. He’s a tenacious competitor and a skilled player and he would be a real asset to anyone looking to contend for a Stanley Cup. The $5.17 million cap space would give the Kraken plenty of breathing room to do what they’d like with callups or future waiver claims.

Yanni is versatile enough, however, to move to the wing. If the Kraken look like they’re out of the playoffs by the time the trade deadline comes around in March, they could probably get a significantly better return for him than if he were traded in October. We hope that won’t be the case, but the Kraken are a fringe playoff team at this point in their trajectory and a few bad bounces or injuries could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

The case for Brandon Tanev

Tanev, like Gourde, is currently slotted to play on the 4th line. The value he brings manifests in an obvious way: he’s tenacious, he’s unbelievably energetic, he stands up for his teammates, is a good penalty killer, and he is extremely fast.

He just can’t put the puck in the net.

How many times have we seen Tanev on a breakaway, only to see him miss the net or the goalie to make the save?

When he’s on the ice, his contribution to the offense is that he makes the offense much worse, moreso than any other Kraken forward. This graph can be hard to interpret, but blue is bad in this case. And that -18% you see there? That’s quite bad.

His defensive play has slipped as well, and the Kraken allowed more expected goals with him on the ice than when he wasn’t. He is, unfortunately at this point, a net negative to the Kraken unless Seattle is on the penalty kill. Maybe this fast-paced Bylsma system will suit Tanev’s skillset a little better because the new system places a higher emphasis on speed, but I don’t think that’s enough to make up for the deficiencies.

While Yanni Gourde is still a good player, I don’t know if I can say that about Brandon Tanev anymore. It makes a lot of sense to find someone who is willing to take him on. (Look, I said this was going to be a tough conversation.)

But who would take the spot in the lineup?

Option 1: Ben Meyers

Meyers has looked fantastic this preseason. Like Mario Lemieux, Cale Makar, and Tye Kartye, Meyers scored his first NHL goal on his first shot. He’s only played 6 career NHL games, but hey, that’s fun trivia! He’s scored two goals this preseason and he seems to be taking to the system quickly. He also has NHL experience, having played 65 games at that level.

Meyers is flexible enough that he could play center or wing, so he would be a candidate to take either Tanev or Gourde’s place. He’s got the grit and tenacity of a 4th liner, but he also brings with him a high hockey IQ and a decent amount of skill for the role he’d be expected to play.

Option 2: John Hayden

Hayden can slot into the 4th line and play the same kind of agitating pest role that Tanev plays. He stands up for his teammates like Tanev does and he brings a lot of sandpaper to his game.

Hayden could slot in LW in Tanev’s absence, but I don’t know where he fits in if Gourde is the one sent away.

Option 3: Ryan Winterton

Winterton has the skill to be the 4th line guy, but I don’t know if that’s the best thing for his development. Hayden and Meyers are considerably older. Winterton is 21 and he has a potentially higher ceiling. He played 9 games for the Kraken last year when Seattle had injuries, and I imagine he’d be one of the first callups again if there are injuries again.

Quoting Sky’s recap from last night:

Okay I had to double check this, but apparently Ryan Winterton got just about every shot attempt he made on net tonight??? Most of them were even fairly dangerous as well???? It is rare to finish any game, even preseason games, with analytics around 80% and 90%. He was almost guaranteed to score tonight and he didn’t get anything out of it. He even played a reasonable amount of even strength time tonight. Well, I’m not gonna let a performance like that go unheralded. Ryan? I appreciate your effort tonight. Good on you, man. Keep that up.

There are flashes of real skill potential in his game and I want that cultivated in Coachella Valley, but given that he’s already been on the short list to call up and Winterton has familiarity with Coach Bylsma and showed good chemistry playing on the same line as Shane Wright in Coachella, it’s a possibility, though I think the least likely of the three.

NHL roster construction is a cruel mistress and every player, no matter who they are, will eventually leave the franchise. Cherish every moment we have left with Yanni and Tanev in tomorrow’s preseason game against Edmonton, because it might be the last time we see them in a Kraken jersey.

Talking Points