We’ve had some draft profiles for a bit, and I was going to do one on Trevor Connolly…
…Until I found out why he might fall out of the first round altogether.
So! Because I do not want to have to beat around the bush for two or three paragraphs before getting to The Character Concerns, of which there are many, I am 86’ing that, giving you a “He’s fast but also probably a PR nightmare waiting to happen so don’t draft him”, and pivoting to the final forward piece in Cole Eiserman next week.
To tide you over, I want to talk about the players that the Kraken already have on-roster; the present, rather than the future. The Kraken need to improve significantly if they want to keep up with the rest of the Pacific Division and while yes, there may be something they can get on the market if they want to…they need to get all their ducks in a row first, and that starts with their Restricted Free Agents; the guys they get to have a crack at first, and begin the delicate dance of trying to find out what’s best for them, and what’s best for the team. Mercifully, the Kraken only have three to go through.
But what a three they are. Let’s talk about each RFA, what they bring to the table, and what, after a disappointing season, they can hope to get from the Kraken if they wish to get another deal.
A Deal for Yamo
Kailer Yamamoto – Winger
- Total Games Played in Seattle: 59
- Points: 16 – 8 Goals, 8 Assists
- What Does He Make Now?: $1.5 Million AAV
- Do you think he’ll get that and more?: Unless his arbitrator really likes his pitch, probably not.
Yamo has a lot of things going against him in the eyes of a lot of NHL GMs, as well as fans. He works his butt off and has the stick skill to overcompensate for a lot of physicality that comes his way, but he’s undersized and his skillset of speedy goalscorer in junior has evolved into more of a defensive depth role that sort of creates a disconnect between what you see on the ice and what he’s producing in on-ice impact.
He can still do that stuff, but his best work has been in denying opportunities for the other team, rather than creating for his own…and as a result, you either have a lot of people who love what he brings in terms of energy and occasional goalscoring, or are deeply, deeply annoyed that he couldn’t find another gear after leaving Edmonton, or perhaps got a little confirmation that he was nothing more than underwhelming depth.
His impact is, as previously stated, something that just feels…wrong for a guy who can move like he does and is as small as he is. His defensive metrics are perfect for his place in the lineup, and if given time on the power play he can find himself a little extra space to be a useful creator. But never more than depth; if there was one thing the Kraken probably got right, it was his place as a bottom-6 forward, and he did that fine.
But the kind of money you give to players like that…is probably not $1.5 million a year. Not right now, anyway. Once the cap goes above a $90 million ceiling? Then we’ll talk.
But right now, I think his performance, his rapid shift into a depth role again, and frankly pretty pedestrian results gives me the impression that his bet on himself will ultimately land him in the same place he was; being depth. Decent depth! But depth all the same. I believe he will likely have to take less to stick around, especially given the larger issues facing the team…
That said, he’s up for Arbitration, which means he could very easily decide to drag this in front of a neutral party and try to get to a more amenable deal. If $1.5 million is too rich, then maybe something like $1.2 million is a little more reasonable for a couple of years.
A Tough Call on Tolvanen
Eeli Tolvanen – Winger
- Total Games Played in Seattle: 129
- Points for Seattle: 68 – 32 goals, 36 assists
- What Does He Make Now?: $1.45 million AAV
- Do you think he’ll get that and more?: …Maybe?
Tolvy’s contract is one inherited from picking him up on Waivers. He was a free forward that hit the ground running when he made it to Seattle, finishing his opening season with the Kraken with aplomb; finishing the year with 16 goals and 27 points in 48 games. Not too shabby!
Then came this season.
Tolvanen became depressingly mortal like the rest of the Kraken did, but he did manage to at least equal his production from the previous year by the end of it, finishing with 48 points, and 16 goals. While he was unquestionably decent depth, it became clear that he was just as much a victim of the Shooting Plague as anyone else. If anything, he was probably the patient who exhibited the worst symptoms. He did go through stretches where he recovered a bit, and became the Eeli Tolvanen of old…but then he’d relapse into multi-week droughts of scoring, and it hurt the team and his chances at a better contract.
All that adds up to a player who’s on-ice impact was…
…let’s be nice and call it “uncharacteristic of his play.”
But all that does make for a tremendous puzzle for his value; they got him for nothing, got a major boost from his presence, and now have the awkward reality of him being unquestionably a depth forward who may have been victim to the Kraken’s biggest singular issue of the year…or an interchangeable guy to plug into your 2nd and 3rd lines. I personally like Tolvy a lot, and I think he’s got more in the tank here than has been shown, but he needs to have a good year next season to even conceive of being worth it.
If he does receive a contract from Seattle, I don’t think he’ll get more than $2 million AAV out of his next contract, and I definitely don’t think it’s going to feature term beyond a couple of years at most. Tolvanen is also up for Arbitration, so if he so decides, he can also drag this in front of somebody to hammer out a deal. Given that the Kraken are still gonna need the $22-$23 million in cap space for hard upgrades throughout the skating corps, he’d better opt for it quickly if he feels he wants to use it; Ron’s made allusions to the idea that the Kraken plan to be active. If he’s not careful, he could be arguing over a very small raise….Which of course in pro athlete terms, is something like $50,000 USD.
But even that will pale in comparison to…
The Big Head-Scratcher
Matty Beniers – Center
- Total Games Played in Seattle: 167
- Points for Seattle: 103 – 42 goals, 61 assists
- What Does He Make Now?: $897,500 AAV
- Do you think he’ll get that and more?: I mean…he needs to…but how much?
I envy a lot of things about General Managers in the NHL. The money, the respect, the ability to ruin a rich guy’s investment with your idea of what a good hockey team looks like…But there are parts of it I do not envy at all.
And this particular RFA situation; this is the exact situation that will test your resolve as an executive. Because this guy probably needs to stay a Kraken, and for a good long time.
But that last season probably made it a lot harder to pick a number, a year amount, and to stick with it.
Beniers’ ascension to the NHL is a perfect story; the Kraken’s first ever draft pick, They called up Matty for the last 10 games of their very bad inaugural season once his time at Michigan was done, they were a lot easier to watch with him on their roster which stoked the flames of hope. In his full season, he roared into the Calder race in season 2, where he created memory after memory as the hot young talent of the 2022-23 season; giving the Kraken an embarrassment of riches at Center as they were able to not just keep him around, but also get Shane Wright and Beniers and Goyette in their system; giving the impression that while the Squids may struggle a bit to get to contention thanks to the rapidly rising Pacific Division; once they get there, it will be a difficult team to play against.
Matty B, a player who’s 2 point nights actually dictated whether or not the Kraken were going to win that game during that season, seemed primed to be the 1C of the future, and would likely be paid accordingly. Sure, they burned a year of his ELC, but who cares? He was playing like a Calder award winner and everything was gonna be fine. Even if he had a bit of a dip thanks to the shooting bender wearing off, that still meant he’d be pretty good, right?
Say it with me now, all together: “And then this season happened.”
More than anything when it came to the Kraken’s shooting woes, everything Matty did just seemed off. He was doing all the things he had been doing last year, still a good defender, still a good passer in theory, still a decent shooter and knew where he needed to be, but there was a timing problem that hadn’t presented itself previously; passes went nowhere, his shots weren’t nearly as dangerous as they could be, he was struggling to pull pucks out of board battles, and his production sagged significantly as the team around him struggled to support him and themselves in a meaningful way. He undeniably got better as the season wore on, he ended up in the top 5 of Kraken scorers, but it’s hard not to notice just how badly losing so much of that dynamic offensive threat kneecapped the Squids. To say it’s shown up on his on-ice impact analytically is underselling it; it arguably completely broke his RAPM chart.
Even with a little course correction as the season wound down, there’s no denying that this was a rough season for him…and now he’s considered an RFA thanks to a decision made years ago to play him for ten games at the end of the Inaugural Season…with him coming off of a sophomore slump so bad it might’ve depth charged his value.
So…what do you do here? What does a fair deal look like for both sides?
We know that Matty can be an absolute force. Matty’s intelligence, his 200-foot game that’s been praised specifically for the mature defensive acumen, his effort level and his skill-set are perfect for what the Kraken want to be. He’s been the linchpin of a lot of success in these early years of the Kraken, and it’s clear the organization sees big things in his future. He has also been subject to one of the most pronounced and confounding drop-offs in recent memory thanks to a Sophomore Slump from hell, which did affect just about everyone on the team, but his arguably hurt the team the most. Do you give him a bridge deal to see if he can recreate his highs of the first full season and hope this season was just an aberration? Do you commit fully, and give him a lot of term in the hopes that can knock the AAV down a bit?
What do you do in Ron Francis’ place? Because it feels like any answer after a season like this will almost certainly draw criticism; warranted or not. I would personally make absolutely certain whatever happened to him this year was an external issue…before locking him down. Players like this can be franchise defining if you can tap their offensive potential as well as their defensive acumen. It happened with Datsyuk in Detroit, Couturier in Philly, Kopitar in LA, Bergeron in Boston and Barkov in Florida.
It can happen here, too with Matty.
This situation is unfortunately why Ron Francis draws the big bucks. He has to make this decision and it is potentially franchise defining.
No pressure, right?
So, if you were in his shoes…what would you do here?